Does Obama stand a chance?

January 16, 2007

So Barack Obama is officially forming a presidential exploratory committee, basically a way candidates can raise money for a possible run at the presidency.  He apparently plans to use the committee for a few weeks to actually explore his chances, which is a little unusual.  Most politicians who form these committee’s already know that they’re going to run, it’s just a formality.  However Obama has indicated he really is exploring, and will make a decision on February 10th.

On the one hand, I hope he runs because he seems to be a positive and affirming voice amidst so much negativity that we’ve heard from our politicians of late.  It would be energizing as well for the Democratic base to have a real viable alternative to Hillary Clinton, the presumptive front-runner in the primary race.

But I just don’t think Obama can win the general election.  He seems good enough to win the Democratic primary, but in the general election the questions about his very limited national experience will weigh heavily.  Especially if the Republican candidate is somebody with extensive national and foreign policy experience like a John McCain.

And there’s also the race issue–I’m not certain the country is ready to vote for an African-American as president.  I’d say it’s more likely we’ll have a female president before we’ll have an African-American president. 

It’ll be interesting to see what happens.  I’ll certainly tune in on February 10th to learn what his final decision is.